Trump tees off on OSU attacker with no specifics

Today, Donald Trump weighed in on the events at Ohio State, by saying that the attacker, Abdul Razak Ali Artan, should not have been in this country. For what it's worth, Artan was a student at OSU, and a permanent resident of the US, who had come here as a Somali refugee. 

Trump pointed to the fact that ISIS had taken credit for the attack as part of the rationale for his argument. First, a nit. When the KKK endorsed Trump, Trump pointed out that he couldn't stop people from endorsing him. But, they did, because in him they found a kindred spirit. In Artan, evidently, Isis found a kindred spirit as well. As of today, no law enforcement agency is saying he was trained by Isis or had any connections with them. From what I've seen, he self-radicalized. But, they liked what he did and endorsed it. So, for Trump, he didn't ask for KKK endorsement and shouldn't be linked with them, but somehow this kid who was not linked with ISIS should be? Interesting how he can come to that conclusion. Moving on...

This attack caused an old work colleague to post on social media that this was enough, and that the left was responsible. The argument went that the left had eight years in charge of Homeland Security (the responsibility and the agencies) to protect the homeland and had FAILED! When I probed for specifics about what the left was responsible for specifically and what Trump would do to fix those shortcomings, I got "they refuse to call it radical Islamic Terrorism" and a bunch of crickets.

So, here's how I see it:

First off, calling out terrorist acts motivated by radical islam as such will not make them go away. It will not magically bring more resources to bear on the problem like declaring a state of emergency. It will only highlight a section of the violence in this country and turn it into a religious war, which is not only unhelpful, but actually counterproductive and hurtful. Islam and Muslims are not "others." They are us. We are not at war with ourselves. We are at war with an ideology that turns feelings of desperation, isolation, anger and sadness into violent actions.

REFUGEES: The Trump line is that we're letting immigrants in without vetting them. Bullshit. Or as he would say flatly--"wrong." For someone to immigrate here as a refugee, they are first selected by the UNHCR for resettlement in the US. That alone is like winning the lottery. Then they are vetted by the National Counterterrorism Center, the State Department, Homeland Security and the DOD. They take fingerprints and DNA. Syrians get additional screening. This process is so dependent on chance and lengthy that it seems unlikely that it would be the preferred method of entry for terrorists.

IMMIGRATION: Trump spent a bunch of time talking about the wall he will build along our border with Mexico. The estimated cost he first quoted was $4B. He later had upped that to $12B. Based on what he said it would be made of and the low end of the height range, experts have said it will cost $25B to construct and the CBO said maintenance costs would exceed initial construction costs in seven years. (Source: John Oliver, Last Week Tonight https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU8dCYocuyI). But it's OK, Mexico will pay for it through taxes on remittances back to Mexico...right?

It's all worth it right? I mean, we're being flooded by Mexican rapists and murderers if you believe the President elect. They're pouring in, taking advantage of free education and social services and having these anchor babies. Well, it's a scary story, but it's not true. Yes, we have a large number of undocumented immigrants in the US. But, that number has been stagnant or falling over the last ten years. In the article, "Immigration is changing much more than the immigration debate," Fivethirtyeight says, "The number of undocumented immigrants remains high, but illegal immigration — the number of new undocumented workers entering the country each year — has fallen close to zero. On a net basis — people entering minus those leaving or being deported — illegal immigration was probably negative between 2007 and 2012." (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/immigration-is-changing-much-more-than-the-immigration-debate/)

A Pew Research study, "Size of U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Workforce Stable After the Great Recession" shows that the absolute numbers of immigrants looking for work and as a percentage of the overall workforce have dropped from 2009-2014, which is the latest data that seems to be available. (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/size-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-workforce-stable-after-the-great-recession/).

In 2006, Democrats and Republicans alike voted for the Secure Fence Act, which authorized the construction of 700 miles of double-layer fence that could have a car driven between. Right after that,  Republicans responding to the Department of Homeland Security, authorized the department to use whatever type of wall was right for the terrain. So, a lot of fence was built, but not of the original double-fence type. A bunch of it is just bollards to keep vehicles from ripping across the border. That's hardly a solution. But, we have to go back to the problem. For real criminals who wish to do us harm, what's the easiest way to enter the US? Walking through the dessert in the middle of the night? Probably not. So, what's the real issue?

VISAS: This, to me, is the scariest hole in our security because it's the easiest way for foreign actors to come here and commit acts of terror if they so choose. Just say you're a businessman and come on in! We have all the guns and fertilizer you need right here. No need to pack anything with you. All this talk of walls is like installing metal plates and deadbolts on the back door of your house, pulling plywood over all the windows and then leaving the front door wide open. Why would we think people would come in some other way when they can just walk right up and say "hey, all right if I have a visit?"

AP Photo, Carolyn Kaster

So, Trump talks about extreme vetting. I have no idea if "extreme vetting" is only for refugees, or if it applies at the airport too. One of his dumb possible Directors of Homeland Security, Kris Kobach, came to his kiss-the-ring ceremony with his fly undone figuratively--he showed his plans for Homeland Security to the press and the world in this photo. Way to go Ace! They blew up the text and now we all know what his plans were. I say "were" because someone said "you can't really give him the job of guarding the homeland after a clumsy mistake like this can you?" I have to agree. But, for fun, what are his plans for this extreme vetting?

"Add extreme vetting questions for high-risk aliens: Question them regarding support for Sharia Law, jihad, equality of men and women, the United States Constitution." 

Foolproof! Nobody will ever be able to get around those Kris! "I hate Sharia Law. I have no interest in jihad. Men and women are equals. I love the US Constitution! Can I come in now?"

But, this is a real problem. We need to have a system that takes care and allows people in to visit for a number of reasons and then ensures they return home. In the article "Visa Overstays and Illegal Immigration: Finally, Some Real Numbers," the point is made that a large percentage--maybe upwards of 40%--of illegal immigrants in the US came here in valid visas, and just never left. Every year, 40M people visit this country, and 99% leave in compliance with heir visa. But the 1% that don't add up to 400,000 net new undocumented people per year in the US. (http://blogs.cfr.org/renewing-america/2016/01/20/visa-overstays-and-illegal-immigration-finally-some-real-numbers/)

So, what do we do with that? Nobody wants to talk about that. That seems a reasonable target to go after. People who came here on visas have photos and documentation. We know who they are. We can go find them. We know how many there are. We can gauge our success or failure. But, that's just work, and governing. It's not sexy, or scary, or headline grabbing.

HOME-GROWN TERRORISM: If you go back and look at our history as a nation, you'll find that lots and lots of bad folks who committed horrible acts were home grown right here. They didn't need to come from somewhere else. After the Paris attacks, there were screams of "refugees killed all these people in Paris." Turned out to be French and Belgian citizens. Home grown. You could make a long list of them from this country. What we really need to fight is the motivations that drive these attacks. I don't think starting a war with Islam serves that purpose.

So, while Trump continues to spout off about the hordes of rapists at the borders, please do some analysis. Start with this, and do more. Then form opinions of your own.

Take care.